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	<title>Comments on: Prediction Markets &#8211; using them for innovation and ideas</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/</link>
	<description>A blog on prediction markets and innovation</description>
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		<title>By: seotest</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-780</link>
		<dc:creator>seotest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Dec 2008 14:40:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-780</guid>
		<description>good research of blog</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>good research of blog</p>
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		<title>By: Marmaris</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-721</link>
		<dc:creator>Marmaris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2008 04:08:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-721</guid>
		<description>To be fair to InterContinental Hotels which is quoted as using prediction markets for this, they are actually a NewsFutures customer and use their Idea Pageant software, instead of the normal Prediction Market software</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To be fair to InterContinental Hotels which is quoted as using prediction markets for this, they are actually a NewsFutures customer and use their Idea Pageant software, instead of the normal Prediction Market software</p>
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		<title>By: links for 2008-06-14 &#171; Arik Johnson&#8217;s Weblog</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-388</link>
		<dc:creator>links for 2008-06-14 &#171; Arik Johnson&#8217;s Weblog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jun 2008 23:36:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-388</guid>
		<description>[...] Mercuryâ€™s Blog Â» Prediction Markets - using them for innovation and ideas (tags: Prediction-Markets analysis Enterprise2.0) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Mercuryâ€™s Blog Â» Prediction Markets &#8211; using them for innovation and ideas (tags: Prediction-Markets analysis Enterprise2.0) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Using enterprise prediction markets too early in the innovation process is BAD. &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-381</link>
		<dc:creator>Using enterprise prediction markets too early in the innovation process is BAD. &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 May 2008 10:18:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-381</guid>
		<description>[...] Jed Christiansen: [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Jed Christiansen: [...]</p>
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		<title>By: jedc_mercury</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-538</link>
		<dc:creator>jedc_mercury</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 13:10:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-538</guid>
		<description>Hi, Mat.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;As I mentioned over on Midas Oracle, I think this is a good approach because the ideas are assessed and developed before they are forecasted in the prediction market.  That&#039;s the separation I think is important.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi, Mat.</p>
<p>As I mentioned over on Midas Oracle, I think this is a good approach because the ideas are assessed and developed before they are forecasted in the prediction market.  That&#39;s the separation I think is important.</p>
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		<title>By: jedc_mercury</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-535</link>
		<dc:creator>jedc_mercury</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 13:04:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-535</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think that prediction markets need to be the incentive.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;I think that when it comes to generating ideas, you need to be as open and inclusive as possible.  The process should allow anyone that submits or helps develop an idea to share in any rewards from that idea.  Once it&#039;s developed, then it can move to a stage where you can do forecasting via a prediction market.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Using a prediction market too early can do two things:&lt;br&gt;1- Poor forecasting due to social influence.&lt;br&gt;2- Limit revolutionary new ideas.  It&#039;s too easy to short an idea that looks strange, when in fact it looks odd because it&#039;s revolutionary.  The idea process should foster and develop ideas, not make them compete against each other.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;I&#039;m glad to have sparked a little discussion here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#39;t think that prediction markets need to be the incentive.</p>
<p>I think that when it comes to generating ideas, you need to be as open and inclusive as possible.  The process should allow anyone that submits or helps develop an idea to share in any rewards from that idea.  Once it&#39;s developed, then it can move to a stage where you can do forecasting via a prediction market.</p>
<p>Using a prediction market too early can do two things:<br />1- Poor forecasting due to social influence.<br />2- Limit revolutionary new ideas.  It&#39;s too easy to short an idea that looks strange, when in fact it looks odd because it&#39;s revolutionary.  The idea process should foster and develop ideas, not make them compete against each other.</p>
<p>I&#39;m glad to have sparked a little discussion here.</p>
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		<title>By: Øyvind</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-534</link>
		<dc:creator>Øyvind</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 12:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-534</guid>
		<description>I disagree, because studies on idea generation shows that the use of incentives increase number of ideas and the quality of ideas.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I disagree, because studies on idea generation shows that the use of incentives increase number of ideas and the quality of ideas.</p>
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		<title>By: Kristoffer Hartwig</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-537</link>
		<dc:creator>Kristoffer Hartwig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 11:22:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-537</guid>
		<description>I see what you mean about social aspects or even pathologies having a presence in idea markets. However, might some of these problems be neutralised with the anonymity of markets participants. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;I cases such as Rite-Solutions (and I realise that may be a particularly positive case, and that the company might have something vested in successful idea market stories seeing as they sell them) it seems that Idea Markets as an event can trigger communication about change within the organisation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see what you mean about social aspects or even pathologies having a presence in idea markets. However, might some of these problems be neutralised with the anonymity of markets participants. </p>
<p>I cases such as Rite-Solutions (and I realise that may be a particularly positive case, and that the company might have something vested in successful idea market stories seeing as they sell them) it seems that Idea Markets as an event can trigger communication about change within the organisation.</p>
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		<title>By: Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-380</link>
		<dc:creator>Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2008 22:43:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-380</guid>
		<description>[...] Mat Fogarty (responding to Jed Christiansen, even though Jed didn&#8217;t talk to him but to Emile [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Mat Fogarty (responding to Jed Christiansen, even though Jed didn&#8217;t talk to him but to Emile [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Mat Fogarty</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/comment-page-1/#comment-536</link>
		<dc:creator>Mat Fogarty</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 May 2008 03:17:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/#comment-536</guid>
		<description>We have had success combining voting to rank the ideas, then prediction markets to analyze the potential of the top ranked ideas.  The phrasing in the prediction market needs to be quite specific, if we invested in idea A, how long would it take to get to market? how much would we sell in the first year?  If the company does not invest in idea A, then the money bet in the market is returned to the user.  &lt;br&gt;With long development cycles this can be challenging as it requires keeping the market active until ship, or for the sales estimate, one year after ship.&lt;br&gt;Of course, you could use a preference market - but this has issues of information cascades and rewarding of group think.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have had success combining voting to rank the ideas, then prediction markets to analyze the potential of the top ranked ideas.  The phrasing in the prediction market needs to be quite specific, if we invested in idea A, how long would it take to get to market? how much would we sell in the first year?  If the company does not invest in idea A, then the money bet in the market is returned to the user.  <br />With long development cycles this can be challenging as it requires keeping the market active until ship, or for the sales estimate, one year after ship.<br />Of course, you could use a preference market &#8211; but this has issues of information cascades and rewarding of group think.</p>
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