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	<title>Comments on: How to interpret prediction market results on elections</title>
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	<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/</link>
	<description>A blog on prediction markets and innovation</description>
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		<title>By: Johny</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-823</link>
		<dc:creator>Johny</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:46:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-823</guid>
		<description>digg it allso, nice one</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>digg it allso, nice one</p>
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		<title>By: Brad Young</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-784</link>
		<dc:creator>Brad Young</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 07:03:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-784</guid>
		<description>Hi there, a great post. Many thanks.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Please check out &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nostradamical.com&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.nostradamical.com&lt;/a&gt; - a new social prediction platform based around the collective prediction of future events - entertainment, business, celebrity, politics, etc. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Unlike other prediction markets &lt;a href=&quot;http://Nostradamical.com&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Nostradamical.com&lt;/a&gt; has several &#039;social&#039; features that make it more based around publishing opinions (like a microblog) and sharing predictions with friends, than the traditional &#039;stock market&#039; model for a prediction market (buying and selling contracts). Users can sign up and publish a prediction like &#039;Will XXX win American Idol this year?&#039;. The prediction, like a blog post is published to Technorati and a host other other blog search engines. Users have activity feeds and become immediately associated to other users when they make a forecast against their prediction (known as &#039;associates&#039;). You can then promote that associate to a &#039;friend&#039; if you want to keep them. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;No real money is involved - users compete to increase their &#039;Vision&#039;, measured in &#039;Future Minutes&#039;. The Nostradamical Prediction Engine controls the group forecast, factoring in various elements to the overall calculation. If the group gets the prediction right, they all get a bonus. Users climb a 7 level pyramid of social status - from Newbie to Oracle. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;The prediction data is geo tagged and the site has google maps integration. We have feeds and the ability to automatically publish your prediction to Friendfeed currently. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;The site is now in Private Beta and we are looking for opinionated individuals to sign up and give us some feedback.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi there, a great post. Many thanks.</p>
<p>Please check out <a href="http://www.nostradamical.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.nostradamical.com</a> &#8211; a new social prediction platform based around the collective prediction of future events &#8211; entertainment, business, celebrity, politics, etc. </p>
<p>Unlike other prediction markets <a href="http://Nostradamical.com" rel="nofollow">Nostradamical.com</a> has several &#39;social&#39; features that make it more based around publishing opinions (like a microblog) and sharing predictions with friends, than the traditional &#39;stock market&#39; model for a prediction market (buying and selling contracts). Users can sign up and publish a prediction like &#39;Will XXX win American Idol this year?&#39;. The prediction, like a blog post is published to Technorati and a host other other blog search engines. Users have activity feeds and become immediately associated to other users when they make a forecast against their prediction (known as &#39;associates&#39;). You can then promote that associate to a &#39;friend&#39; if you want to keep them. </p>
<p>No real money is involved &#8211; users compete to increase their &#39;Vision&#39;, measured in &#39;Future Minutes&#39;. The Nostradamical Prediction Engine controls the group forecast, factoring in various elements to the overall calculation. If the group gets the prediction right, they all get a bonus. Users climb a 7 level pyramid of social status &#8211; from Newbie to Oracle. </p>
<p>The prediction data is geo tagged and the site has google maps integration. We have feeds and the ability to automatically publish your prediction to Friendfeed currently. </p>
<p>The site is now in Private Beta and we are looking for opinionated individuals to sign up and give us some feedback.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: jedc_mercury</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-702</link>
		<dc:creator>jedc_mercury</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:20:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-702</guid>
		<description>Thanks!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks!</p>
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		<title>By: saperduper</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-699</link>
		<dc:creator>saperduper</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2008 12:42:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-699</guid>
		<description>very informative article&lt;br&gt;cheers!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>very informative article<br />cheers!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Can InTrade traders correct their own biases? &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-348</link>
		<dc:creator>Can InTrade traders correct their own biases? &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2008 13:20:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-348</guid>
		<description>[...] fields journalists and others tend to forget about it. I&#8217;ve written more about the phenomenon here. I agree that InTrade would likely be even better if the market had more people participating, but [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] fields journalists and others tend to forget about it. I&#8217;ve written more about the phenomenon here. I agree that InTrade would likely be even better if the market had more people participating, but [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets. &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-342</link>
		<dc:creator>Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets. &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jan 2008 22:39:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-342</guid>
		<description>[...] the New Hampshire brouhaha, I believe that the way to go is to systematically associate a short probability explainer to any published chart of prediction market. You can see such an association at the top of our blog [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] the New Hampshire brouhaha, I believe that the way to go is to systematically associate a short probability explainer to any published chart of prediction market. You can see such an association at the top of our blog [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: jedc_mercury</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-532</link>
		<dc:creator>jedc_mercury</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jan 2008 13:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-532</guid>
		<description>Thanks, James.  I&#039;m glad you liked it.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Jed</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks, James.  I&#39;m glad you liked it.</p>
<p>Jed</p>
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		<title>By: James</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-531</link>
		<dc:creator>James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jan 2008 02:29:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-531</guid>
		<description>You&#039;ve been del.icio.us&#039;ed. Fantastic article.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#39;ve been del.icio.us&#39;ed. Fantastic article.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-341</link>
		<dc:creator>Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jan 2008 09:08:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-341</guid>
		<description>[...] [UPDATE: Jed Christiansen.] [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] [UPDATE: Jed Christiansen.] [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute &#38; Relative Accuracy &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-340</link>
		<dc:creator>Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute &#38; Relative Accuracy &#124; Midas Oracle .ORG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 20:24:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/#comment-340</guid>
		<description>[...] F. Masse January 25th, 2008 Jed Christiansen outputs the best explainer on prediction markets I&#8217;ve seen in years. Go read it. - Fundamentals of Prediction Markets - Different types of Prediction Markets - Problem [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] F. Masse January 25th, 2008 Jed Christiansen outputs the best explainer on prediction markets I&#8217;ve seen in years. Go read it. &#8211; Fundamentals of Prediction Markets &#8211; Different types of Prediction Markets &#8211; Problem [...]</p>
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