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	<title>Comments on: Setting Initial Conditions for Prediction Markets</title>
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	<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/07/10/setting-initial-conditions-for-prediction-markets/</link>
	<description>A blog on prediction markets and innovation</description>
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		<title>By: Jed Christiansen</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/07/10/setting-initial-conditions-for-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-184</link>
		<dc:creator>Jed Christiansen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jul 2007 08:47:24 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Thanks, alex.

That is a great aspect of the HSX markets; the MovieStocks are very easy for people to understand, but you also have StarBonds and these options (and more) for more sophisticated traders.

The constant &quot;churn&quot; of contracts is key in maintaining interest on an exchange.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks, alex.</p>
<p>That is a great aspect of the HSX markets; the MovieStocks are very easy for people to understand, but you also have StarBonds and these options (and more) for more sophisticated traders.</p>
<p>The constant &#8220;churn&#8221; of contracts is key in maintaining interest on an exchange.</p>
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		<title>By: alex</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/07/10/setting-initial-conditions-for-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-183</link>
		<dc:creator>alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jul 2007 21:00:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/07/10/setting-initial-conditions-for-prediction-markets/#comment-183</guid>
		<description>&quot;...Again, the Hollywood Stock Exchange is a great example here as a trader can participate at any stage of a filmâ€™s creation, from pre-production all the way through to the first days and weeks at the box office. Since new films are out every week, there are always long-term and short-term contracts on which to speculate....&quot;

That&#039;s correct Jed. By nature of the production process and the constant flow of new product being introduced, there are inherently always available long-term and short-term contracts. We augment this by adding call and put options relating specifically to a film&#039;s opening weekend. For example a call option speculates a film will have a higher box office result for its opening weekend than the option&#039;s strike price. A H$20 call has a strike price of H$20, and will delist at zero if the movie does not make $20 million or more during its opening weekend (typically that is Fri-Su). If the film makes more than $20 million it will cash out based on actual box office receipts minus the strike price; so say, for example a film made $25 million during the Fri-Su release weekend, the call would cash out at H$5.00 (H$25 - H$20). We also add other &#039;special securities&#039; tied to season or other shorter-term industry events to further trader involvement in the Exchange. This combination of long-term and short-term propositions provides variety in game-play and further peaks trader interest in the nuances of a film&#039;s lifecycle.  The same design method can be applied to prediction markets in other industries.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;&#8230;Again, the Hollywood Stock Exchange is a great example here as a trader can participate at any stage of a filmâ€™s creation, from pre-production all the way through to the first days and weeks at the box office. Since new films are out every week, there are always long-term and short-term contracts on which to speculate&#8230;.&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s correct Jed. By nature of the production process and the constant flow of new product being introduced, there are inherently always available long-term and short-term contracts. We augment this by adding call and put options relating specifically to a film&#8217;s opening weekend. For example a call option speculates a film will have a higher box office result for its opening weekend than the option&#8217;s strike price. A H$20 call has a strike price of H$20, and will delist at zero if the movie does not make $20 million or more during its opening weekend (typically that is Fri-Su). If the film makes more than $20 million it will cash out based on actual box office receipts minus the strike price; so say, for example a film made $25 million during the Fri-Su release weekend, the call would cash out at H$5.00 (H$25 &#8211; H$20). We also add other &#8216;special securities&#8217; tied to season or other shorter-term industry events to further trader involvement in the Exchange. This combination of long-term and short-term propositions provides variety in game-play and further peaks trader interest in the nuances of a film&#8217;s lifecycle.  The same design method can be applied to prediction markets in other industries.</p>
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		<title>By: Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; Blog Archive &#187; How the Hollywood Stock Exchange and the other betting exchanges encourage event derivative traders to continually check back and trade further</title>
		<link>http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/07/10/setting-initial-conditions-for-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-181</link>
		<dc:creator>Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; Blog Archive &#187; How the Hollywood Stock Exchange and the other betting exchanges encourage event derivative traders to continually check back and trade further</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2007 11:49:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/07/10/setting-initial-conditions-for-prediction-markets/#comment-181</guid>
		<description>[...] betting exchanges encourage event derivative traders to continually check back and trade further  Prediction market consultant Jed Christiansen: [&#8230;] The Hollywood Stock Exchange has gone to the other side of the spectrum. They stake each [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] betting exchanges encourage event derivative traders to continually check back and trade further  Prediction market consultant Jed Christiansen: [&#8230;] The Hollywood Stock Exchange has gone to the other side of the spectrum. They stake each [...]</p>
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